How Research Can Drive Strategic Foresight
Summary
Did you know that the terms "bureaucracy" and "information worker" were both invented by sociologists, long before either thing existed? Did you know that the 2008 crash was accurately predicted by an anthropologist? Many people don't realize that social research drives robust foresight. This is the kind of value even a very junior UX researcher can contribute. In this talk, Sam Ladner will describe how researchers can sift and track weak signals, how to create trend reports, and how to predict areas of change.
Key Insights
-
•
Confidence is essential for UX researchers to lead strategic foresight and gain a seat at the decision-making table.
-
•
Max Weber’s insight of standardized paper led to the concept of bureaucracy, showing mundane objects can signal systemic shifts.
-
•
Strategic foresight requires combining technological, social, economic, and political signals, not just focusing on new technologies.
-
•
Avoiding WEIRD biases is critical; mental models differ vastly across cultures and affect research outcomes.
-
•
A generic foresight framework involves scanning signals, interpreting them, imagining futures, then planning strategies accordingly.
-
•
Backcasting, imagining a future and then working backwards, is a powerful alternative to traditional forecasting.
-
•
Rigorous foresight means being able to explain your research choices and tradeoffs, not just following scientific method blindly.
-
•
Persistent scanning and well-organized coding systems, inspired by the historical commonplace book, help track and synthesize weak signals over time.
-
•
Anthropologist Gillian Tett successfully predicted the 2008 financial crisis by integrating social, cultural, and technological changes.
-
•
Being too early with a prediction is okay; maintaining preparedness and continually collecting data is key to eventual success.
Notable Quotes
"This talk is more than anything else, it’s about confidence."
"You have to have a point of view, and you have to lead in order to get that impact in strategic foresight."
"Some of the most mundane objects can signal change."
"The boss’s son is no longer the default backup boss; there are now written rules accessible to all."
"When you mix trends together, you will see where change is likely to occur."
"You have to be careful not to be too weird; mental models differ internationally."
"Rigour really is just a method; it’s knowing why you made the choices and tradeoffs you did."
"Sometimes you’re too early. Don’t fear. File this away and keep your powder dry."
"I am swimming in a sea of information, like a little fish, and eating all the stuff."
"Ask yourself, who is not included in this future? Be self-reflexive to reduce bias."
Or choose a question:
More Videos
"Reddit recently fixed their upvote button so it announces toggle states, something many sites neglect."
Sam ProulxEverything You Ever Wanted to Know About Screen Readers
June 11, 2021
"Please put your questions inside the thread specific to the talk so we can keep everything organized."
Bria AlexanderOpening Remarks
November 17, 2022
"If you were blindsided recently, I’ve been there. I just really appreciated a kind voice because I didn’t hear a single word they said."
Corey Nelson Amy SanteeLayoffs
November 15, 2022
"Enterprises are basically people pursuing outcomes, doing activities, and using objects—this simple theory underpins the language of Edgy."
Milan GuentherA Shared Language for Co-Creating Ambitious Endeavours
June 6, 2023
"It’s not a theme unless you can put your hand over every sticky note and the label explains the story."
Erin May Roberta Dombrowski Laura Oxenfeld Brooke HintonDistributed, Democratized, Decentralized: Finding a Research Model to Support Your Org
March 10, 2022
"No one uses the screen reader with out-of-the-box settings; users customize it to fit their needs."
Sam ProulxUnderstanding Screen Readers on Mobile: How And Why to Learn from Native Users
June 6, 2023
"We used AI tools like NotebookLM and Gemini primarily to shortcut getting up to speed and managing transcripts, without focusing on specific tools themselves."
Mujtaba HameedThe new horizon of ethnography: using AI to unlock the full potential of in-person research
March 11, 2026
"Futures thinking is not about predicting the future, but about being smarter about anticipating risks and consequences of our actions today."
Ilana LipsettAnticipating Risk, Regulating Tech: A Playbook for Ethical Technology Governance
December 10, 2021
"Designing for the average means designing for nobody."
Samuel ProulxFrom Standards to Innovation: Why Inclusive Design Wins
September 10, 2025
